Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aston Villa vs. Southampton (Nov. 1)

Robin Jones/Getty Images. Pictured: Danny Ings.

Aston Villa vs. Southampton Odds

Aston Villa Odds +148 [BET NOW]
Southampton Odds +175 [BET NOW]
Draw +260 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155) [BET NOW]
Time 7 a.m. ET
How To Watch Peacock Premium

Odds updated as of Sunday at 1 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Few teams started better than Aston Villa in the Premier League, especially considering their 7-2 thrashing of Liverpool prior to the international break. As Southampton travels to Villa Park on Sunday, the Saints could move into the top four, albeit maybe only for a few hours, with a win.

Let’s break this one down.

_BookPromo=49

Aston Villa

Aston Villa was dealt a heat check in its last game against Leeds United in the Premier League. After winning four straight games to start the season, the Villans lost 3-0 last Friday. Despite the loss, they’ve had an impressive start to the PL season, ranking fifth in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) through five games. Villa was one of the worst defensive teams in the entire PL last season, but they have the second best defensive record, according to xG, since the 2020-21 campaign began.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Lions are pressing more than usual this year, and with the excellent play of forward Ollie Watkins linking up with creator Jack Grealish, Villa have improved at both ends of the pitch. Watkins is the forward Villa desperately needed, and he’s averaging 0.6 xG/90 since joining the club from Brentford.

However, there are flashing red signs of regression for Villa. I’m much more likely to buy into a 38-game sample than a four-game sample that saw Villa beat Sheffield United and Leicester with less than 1.00 xG in either match. Two big wins against Liverpool and Fulham appear to be really juicing this line toward Villa. They rank third in goals per shot at 0.17. That, historically, tends to regress. It’s a level of unsustainable finishing that will come to an end.

Any Team +50?! $100 for Just One TD? The Best Sportsbook Promos for Week 8Read now

Southampton

I lost money betting on Southampton early in the season when the Saints just weren’t quite on with their pressing system early in the season. They lost to Crystal Palace on opening day and were steamrolled by Spurs the following week. I thought for a split second that something might actually be wrong with Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side, especially given how high I was on Southampton. It turns out that Southampton’s pressing unit just needed some time to get into their rhythm and find their fitness.

Since then, Saints have won three of four. The one match they didn’t win was a dramatic 3-3 draw against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. They kept clean sheets in their three victories this season while ranking fourth in passes per defensive action, a metric that measures ball pressure.

Danny Ings has continued his fine form for Southampton up top, but he has more help in the goal department this year from fellow striker Che Adams. Adams underperformed in finishing in 2019-20, but he’s underperforming again so far in 2020. But the two play well off each other.

The Southampton numbers aren’t that impressive, but they’re about in line with last season. They’re good enough to finish near the top half of the table, well above relegation, but not good enough to challenge for top six.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal: Tight Affair Expected at Old TraffordRead now

Betting Analysis

The wrong team is favored in this match. Southampton is the better team. I’m not too worried about being on the road, given how profitable away teams have been in the league thus far. I’ll take the Saints to get all three points.

Pick: Southampton moneyline (+175)

[Bet on the Southampton-Aston Villa match now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]



nguồn: Action Network https://www.actionnetwork.com/soccer/sunday-premier-league-betting-odds-picks-predictions-southampton-vs-aston-villa-nov-1
Xem thêm: https://thuthao200799.blogspot.com
https://sv88.com

Nhận xét

Đăng nhận xét

Bài đăng phổ biến từ blog này

What Tennessee’s 10% Hold Means for Sports Bettors

Hình ảnh
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarrett Guarantano Tennessee is the next state to join the legal sports betting market, going live Sunday, November 1. Four sportsbooks — DraftKings , FanDuel , BetMGM and Action 247 — will offer wagers from Day 1, with others assuredly coming soon. Those who have followed the legal landscape closely over the last two years since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down PASPA in 2018 are aware that sports betting in the states is not a once-size-fits-all proposition. Each state gets to make its own rules and regulations, and some states are quite different. Tennessee’s rules aren’t the worst in the country, but are definitely not the best for bettors, either. What’s Different About Tennessee: The 10% Hold The Volunteer State’s legislation requires that sportsbooks generate at least a 10% hold – the percentage of money books “hold” after all bets have been settled. In financial terms, it’s gross revenue divided by the amount of dollars wagered.
Đọc thêm

BetMGM Sportsbook Officially Launches Sports Betting in Tennessee

Hình ảnh
Photo credit: Andrew Ferguson/Collegiate Images/Getty Images Tennessee is officially live with legal sports betting as of Sunday, Nov. 1, and BetMGM is one of the first members of the club. BetMGM is already one of the biggest operators in the U.S., and you’ve likely heard of their hotels — owned by parent company MGM Resorts International — in Las Vegas, New Jersey and many other places. In 2018, shortly after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down PASPA, which allowed states to legalize sports betting, MGM partnered with European operator GVC Holdings to create ROAR Digital, which runs the now-formed BetMGM brand. _BookPromo=227 The sportsbook is now live and offering online wagering in six states: Tennessee New Jersey Colorado Indiana Nevada West Virginia Only DraftKings and FanDuel are currently in more states with legal online betting. Sports betting enthusiasts will certainly track the success of BetMGM and the other sportsbooks in Tennessee, which has some uni
Đọc thêm

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro Pardons Political Opponents

MEXICO CITY — The Venezuelan authorities mentioned Monday it will pardon greater than 100 political opponents who had been focused for prosecution in what would quantity to the nation’s largest political amnesty in nearly a decade. The transfer got here as President Nicolás Maduro tries to interrupt an opposition boycott of coming congressional elections. However the preliminary response from many opposition figures was scathing. Mr. Maduro issued a presidential decree that ends felony instances towards greater than 20 jailed and exiled opposition politicians, as effectively dozens of political activists, the president’s spokesman, Jorge Rodríguez, mentioned in a shock nationwide handle Monday. Advertisement Many individuals on the checklist have by no means been formally charged and even introduced to courtroom, and rights activists urged warning till the measure is enforce. The federal government portrayed the president’s motion as a peace providing to opponents beca
Đọc thêm