MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Nationals vs. Phillies (Tuesday, Sept. 1)

Mitchell Layton and G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Aaron Nola and Patrick Corbin.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds

Nationals Odds +128 [Bet Now]
Phillies Odds -148 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-106) [Bet Now]
First Pitch Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of Monday at 11:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Tuesday’s Phillies vs. Nationals game features a heavyweight pitching matchup as Aaron Nola takes on Patrick Corbin. Both teams are at the bottom of NL East as we reach the halfway point in the season, so a win on Tuesday will be crucial if either team is going to make a run at a playoff spot.

Check out our free MLB odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Nationals Probable Starter

Patrick Corbin, LHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Corbin has been solid through his six starts. He’s accumulated a 3.82 ERA and 3.50 xFIP and has been really effective with his slider, which has held hitters under a .200 wOBA and produced a 42.4% whiff rate.

However, Corbin has had some major issues with his fastball, to put in mildly. Opposing hitters have tagged it for a .487 wOBA and seven extra base hits. Corbin faced the Phillies six days ago and was lucky to walk away only allowing two runs; he gave up seven hits and two walks in six innings of work. I think the Phillies will capitalize this time around, given how good their lineup is against left-handed pitching.

Phillies Projected Lineup

The Phillies have been fantastic offensively to start the season. Philadelphia’s lineup boasts the fourth-best wOBA (.346) and fifth-best wRC+ (116) in MLB. Furthermore, the Phillies have been absolutely mashing left-handed pitchers. In 179 plate appearances, the Phillies have a .366 wOBA and 130 wRC+, both of which are significantly higher marks than their numbers against righties. Corbin has been solid so far, but navigating this Phillies lineup will be a tall task for the Nationals starter.

Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen hasn’t been great this season, posting an ERA over 5.00 and an xFIP over 4.50. Washington’s relievers have gotten even worse over the past week, posting a 5.81 ERA.

Projections and Pick

I think the Phillies will be able to get to Corbin this time around. I have Philadelphia projected for 5.01 runs on Tuesday, so I think there is value in taking their team total of over 4.5 runs at +102 (DraftKings) and I would play it up to -108.

Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (+102)

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

_BookPromo=49



nguồn: Action Network https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-betting-odds-picks-predictions-nationals-vs-phillies-tuesday-september-1
Xem thêm: https://thuthao200799.blogspot.com
https://sv88.com

Nhận xét

Đăng nhận xét

Bài đăng phổ biến từ blog này

What Tennessee’s 10% Hold Means for Sports Bettors

Hình ảnh
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarrett Guarantano Tennessee is the next state to join the legal sports betting market, going live Sunday, November 1. Four sportsbooks — DraftKings , FanDuel , BetMGM and Action 247 — will offer wagers from Day 1, with others assuredly coming soon. Those who have followed the legal landscape closely over the last two years since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down PASPA in 2018 are aware that sports betting in the states is not a once-size-fits-all proposition. Each state gets to make its own rules and regulations, and some states are quite different. Tennessee’s rules aren’t the worst in the country, but are definitely not the best for bettors, either. What’s Different About Tennessee: The 10% Hold The Volunteer State’s legislation requires that sportsbooks generate at least a 10% hold – the percentage of money books “hold” after all bets have been settled. In financial terms, it’s gross revenue divided by the amount of dollars wagered.
Đọc thêm

BetMGM Sportsbook Officially Launches Sports Betting in Tennessee

Hình ảnh
Photo credit: Andrew Ferguson/Collegiate Images/Getty Images Tennessee is officially live with legal sports betting as of Sunday, Nov. 1, and BetMGM is one of the first members of the club. BetMGM is already one of the biggest operators in the U.S., and you’ve likely heard of their hotels — owned by parent company MGM Resorts International — in Las Vegas, New Jersey and many other places. In 2018, shortly after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down PASPA, which allowed states to legalize sports betting, MGM partnered with European operator GVC Holdings to create ROAR Digital, which runs the now-formed BetMGM brand. _BookPromo=227 The sportsbook is now live and offering online wagering in six states: Tennessee New Jersey Colorado Indiana Nevada West Virginia Only DraftKings and FanDuel are currently in more states with legal online betting. Sports betting enthusiasts will certainly track the success of BetMGM and the other sportsbooks in Tennessee, which has some uni
Đọc thêm

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro Pardons Political Opponents

MEXICO CITY — The Venezuelan authorities mentioned Monday it will pardon greater than 100 political opponents who had been focused for prosecution in what would quantity to the nation’s largest political amnesty in nearly a decade. The transfer got here as President Nicolás Maduro tries to interrupt an opposition boycott of coming congressional elections. However the preliminary response from many opposition figures was scathing. Mr. Maduro issued a presidential decree that ends felony instances towards greater than 20 jailed and exiled opposition politicians, as effectively dozens of political activists, the president’s spokesman, Jorge Rodríguez, mentioned in a shock nationwide handle Monday. Advertisement Many individuals on the checklist have by no means been formally charged and even introduced to courtroom, and rights activists urged warning till the measure is enforce. The federal government portrayed the president’s motion as a peace providing to opponents beca
Đọc thêm